Will the Democrats sweep the House and Senate and the US government not take a stake in OpenAI or Anthropic by the end of 2027?
ActiveLiquidity $1,773·Volume $3,484·Ends Jan 1, 2028
Price now:Yes68%No32%
Smart money leans
Yes
67% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
67%price67%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$299 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered35¢67¢at 07:22(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesin 416d(Jan 1, 2028)Liquidity$1,773
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $299 riding on it.
The price of 67% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 35¢; the price was 67¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $299 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:22
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | MenacingTurtleMid | Buy | No | 42¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | MenacingTurtleMid | Buy | No | 42¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | MenacingTurtleMid | Buy | No | 42¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | MenacingTurtleMid | Buy | No | 41¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | MenacingTurtleMid | Buy | No | 42¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | MenacingTurtleMid | Buy | Yes | 49¢ | $568 |