Will Poland win on 2026-11-14?
ActiveLiquidity $5,482·Volume $205·Ends Nov 14, 2026
Price now:Yes54%No47%
Smart money leans
Yes
54% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.4pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
54%price54%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$320 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$647
Smart money entered53¢54¢at 05:16(7% priced in)Edge left+0.4ppLast smart buy2d agoResolvesin 37h 28m(Nov 14, 2026)Liquidity$5,482
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $320 riding on it.
The price of 54% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 53¢; the price was 54¢ at this snapshot — roughly 7% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $320 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$647 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 05:16
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No smart trades recorded yet. | |||||