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Italy vs. France: O/U 4.5

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $2,100·Volume $0·Ends Nov 12, 2026
Price now:Over0%Under100%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 05:35Smart money exiting · $14.3K sold 24hcomputed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Under
100% at snapshot
Divergence
-0.2pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
4
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$16.4K
72h +$16.4K
Smart money entered100¢100¢at 05:35Edge leftnoneLast smart buy8h agoResolvesended(Nov 12, 2026)Liquidity$2,100
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

4 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Under", with $0 riding on it.

The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 100¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot.

Warning: wallets that backed "Under" are now net selling it — followers usually exit when the wallets they follow do.

Note: only $0 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$16.4K, +$16.4K over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 05:35
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
8h agopvc975MidBuyUnder100¢$18
8h agopvc975MidBuyUnder100¢$122
8h agopvc975MidBuyUnder100¢$20
8h agopvc975MidBuyUnder100¢$15
8h agopvc975MidBuyUnder100¢$15
8h ago0xb5ce…e2afTopBuyUnder100¢$1,078
8h ago0xd8fe…8591TopSellUnder100¢$14,317
8h agopvc975MidBuyUnder100¢$13,238
8h agopvc975MidBuyUnder100¢$13,238
8h ago0xb5ce…e2afTopBuyUnder100¢$1,078
8h ago0xd8fe…8591TopSellUnder100¢$14,317
8h ago0xb5ce…e2afTopBuyUnder100¢$50
8h ago0xb5ce…e2afTopBuyUnder100¢$50
8h ago0xb5ce…e2afTopBuyUnder100¢$30
8h ago0xb5ce…e2afTopBuyUnder100¢$30
8h ago0xb5ce…e2afTopBuyUnder100¢$33
8h ago0xb5ce…e2afTopBuyUnder100¢$2
8h ago0xb5ce…e2afTopBuyUnder100¢$2
8h ago0xb5ce…e2afTopBuyUnder100¢$244
8h ago0x5e66…f899MidBuyUnder100¢$76
8h ago0xb5ce…e2afTopBuyUnder100¢$244
8h ago0x5e66…f899MidBuyUnder100¢$151
8h ago0x5e66…f899MidBuyUnder100¢$13
8h ago0x5e66…f899MidBuyUnder100¢$61
8h ago0x5e66…f899MidBuyUnder100¢$20
8h ago0x5e66…f899MidBuyUnder100¢$6
8h ago0x5e66…f899MidBuyUnder100¢$516
8h ago0x5e66…f899MidBuyUnder100¢$101
8h ago0x5e66…f899MidBuyUnder100¢$250
8h ago0x58e8…ff0fMidBuyOver11¢$63
8h agomaxiplayerMidBuyUnder85¢$10
8h agomaxiplayerMidBuyUnder85¢$10
9h ago0xd8fe…8591TopBuyUnder55¢$7,896
9h agoNewJibzJ1TopBuyOver34¢$250
9h agoNewJibzJ1TopBuyOver34¢$250