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UFC 334: Stephen Thompson vs. Charles Radtke (Welterweight, Prelims)

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $11.6K·Volume $2,539·Ends Nov 15, 2026
Price now:Stephen Thompson100%Charles Radtke0%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 07:08computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Stephen Thompson
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
5
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$29.2K
72h +$31.3K
Smart money entered50¢100¢at 07:08(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy6h agoResolvesended(Nov 15, 2026)Liquidity$11.6K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

5 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Stephen Thompson", with $0 riding on it.

The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 50¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$29.2K, +$31.3K over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 07:08
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
6h ago8DDDMidSellStephen Thompson94¢$21
6h ago8DDDMidSellStephen Thompson94¢$250
6h ago8DDDMidSellStephen Thompson94¢$26
6h ago8DDDMidSellStephen Thompson94¢$40
6h ago8DDDMidSellStephen Thompson94¢$98
6h ago8DDDMidSellStephen Thompson94¢$35
6h agoyuiui1025MidBuyStephen Thompson94¢$9
6h ago8DDDMidSellStephen Thompson94¢$470
6h agoaviatoMidBuyStephen Thompson95¢$950
6h agoSleepingChickenMidBuyCharles Radtke10¢$5
6h agoSleepingChickenMidBuyCharles Radtke10¢$5
6h agoaviatoMidBuyStephen Thompson86¢$172
6h ago8DDDMidSellStephen Thompson87¢$228
6h agoaviatoMidBuyStephen Thompson87¢$174
6h agoaviatoMidBuyStephen Thompson87¢$174
6h ago0x98ae…ee93TopBuyCharles Radtke14¢$7
6h ago0x98ae…ee93TopBuyCharles Radtke14¢$7
6h ago0xe399…e9d4MidSellCharles Radtke13¢$32
6h ago0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540MidBuyCharles Radtke14¢$66
6h ago0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540MidBuyCharles Radtke14¢$66
6h agoyuiui1025MidSellCharles Radtke25¢$3
6h agoyuiui1025MidBuyCharles Radtke42¢$4
6h agoyuiui1025MidBuyCharles Radtke42¢$5
6h ago0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846MidBuyCharles Radtke46¢$262
6h agogaclfzMidBuyCharles Radtke61¢$1
6h agogaclfzMidBuyCharles Radtke61¢$14
6h agogaclfzMidBuyCharles Radtke61¢$9
6h ago0xe399…e9d4MidBuyCharles Radtke62¢$102
6h agogaclfzMidBuyCharles Radtke61¢$1
6h agogaclfzMidBuyCharles Radtke61¢$61
6h agogaclfzMidBuyCharles Radtke61¢$14
6h agogaclfzMidBuyCharles Radtke61¢$6
6h agogaclfzMidBuyCharles Radtke61¢$203
6h agogaclfzMidBuyCharles Radtke61¢$203
6h agogaclfzMidBuyCharles Radtke61¢$203
6h agogaclfzMidBuyCharles Radtke60¢$201
6h agogaclfzMidBuyCharles Radtke53¢$11
6h agogaclfzMidBuyCharles Radtke55¢$183
6h agogaclfzMidBuyCharles Radtke60¢$201
6h ago0xe399…e9d4MidBuyCharles Radtke53¢$51
6h agogaclfzMidBuyCharles Radtke55¢$183
6h agogaclfzMidBuyCharles Radtke54¢$180
6h agoyuiui1025MidBuyStephen Thompson45¢$5
6h agoyuiui1025MidSellCharles Radtke55¢$6
6h agoyuiui1025MidSellCharles Radtke55¢$6
6h ago0xe399…e9d4MidSellStephen Thompson45¢$271
6h agogaclfzMidBuyCharles Radtke53¢$176
6h agoyuiui1025MidSellStephen Thompson47¢$5
6h agoyuiui1025MidBuyCharles Radtke53¢$6
6h agoyuiui1025MidSellStephen Thompson47¢$5