Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by November 30, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $3,423·Volume $10.9K·Ends Dec 1, 2026
Price now:Yes2%No98%
Smart money leans
No
98% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
98%price98%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$3,065 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$351
Smart money entered97¢98¢at 06:45(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesin 20d(Dec 1, 2026)Liquidity$3,423
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $3,065 riding on it.
The price of 98% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 97¢; the price was 98¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $3,065 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$351 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 06:45
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $57 |
| 1d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $57 |
| 1d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $41 |
| 2d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $98 |
| 2d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $98 |
| 4d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $96 |
| 4d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $97 |
| 4d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $291 |
| 4d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $194 |
| 6d ago | Paul973973Mid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $2,003 |
| 1w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $96 |
| 1w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $96 |