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Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $21.7K·Volume $356.0K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes10%No91%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 02:03computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
No
91% at snapshot
Divergence
-0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
55%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
91%price90%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$2,655 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered82¢91¢at 02:03Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2w agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$21.7K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are narrowly leaning toward betting on "No", with $2,655 riding on it.

The price of 91% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 82¢; the price was 91¢ at this snapshot.

Note: only $2,655 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Delayed 1h · as of 02:03
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
1w agoOptimus-MidSellYes20¢$56
1w agoOptimus-MidSellYes20¢$20
1w agoOptimus-MidSellYes20¢$32
2w agoD8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935MidSellNo87¢$521
2w agoStarMasterMidBuyYes14¢$28
2w agoOptimus-MidSellYes20¢$20
2w agoOptimus-MidSellYes20¢$2
2w agoOptimus-MidSellYes20¢$10
2w agoJesetradingTopBuyYes18¢$8
2w agoOptimus-MidSellYes20¢$19
2w agoJesetradingTopBuyYes18¢$10
2w agoJesetradingTopBuyNo81¢$847
2w agoStarMasterMidBuyYes19¢$57
2w agoJesetradingTopBuyYes21¢$85
2w agoOptimus-MidSellYes24¢$12
2w agoOptimus-MidSellYes24¢$4
2w agoStarMasterMidSellYes19¢$58
2w agoOptimus-MidSellYes24¢$1
2w agoOptimus-MidSellYes24¢$10
2w agoOptimus-MidSellYes24¢$33
3w agoOptimus-MidSellYes24¢$1
3w agoOptimus-MidSellYes24¢$192
3w agoOptimus-MidSellYes24¢$7
3w agoOptimus-MidSellYes24¢$13
3w agoStarMasterMidSellYes18¢$70
3w agoStarMasterMidBuyYes20¢$40
3w agoOptimus-MidSellYes21¢$508
3w agoOptimus-MidSellYes25¢$2,437
3w agotroimMidBuyYes23¢$108
3w agotroimMidBuyYes23¢$176
3w agoStarMasterMidBuyYes27¢$69
3w agotroimMidBuyYes28¢$560
3w agoDragontreeMidSellYes27¢$58
3w agoDragontreeMidSellYes27¢$76
3w agoDragontreeMidSellYes27¢$205
3w agoOptimus-MidBuyYes25¢$1,030
3w agotroimMidBuyYes23¢$60
3w agotroimMidBuyYes23¢$5
3w agotroimMidBuyYes23¢$1
3w agotroimMidBuyYes23¢$0
3w agotroimMidBuyYes23¢$341
3w agoStarMasterMidBuyYes24¢$6
3w agoStarMasterMidBuyYes24¢$1
3w agoStarMasterMidBuyYes24¢$8
3w agoStarMasterMidBuyYes24¢$3
3w agoStarMasterMidBuyYes24¢$2
3w agoStarMasterMidBuyYes24¢$38
3w ago4751346MidSellNo74¢$48
3w agoDragontreeMidSellYes27¢$179
3w ago4751346MidSellNo74¢$586