Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 29, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $221·Volume $11.5K·Ends Sep 29, 2026
Price now:Yes65%No35%
Smart money leans
Yes
65% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
65%price65%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$273 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered92¢65¢at 03:25(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Sep 29, 2026)Liquidity$221
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $273 riding on it.
The price of 65% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 92¢; the price was 65¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $273 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 03:25
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $43 |
| 1w ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 90¢ | $50 |
| 4w ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 92¢ | $10 |
| 5w ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 90¢ | $49 |
| 5w ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 92¢ | $1 |
| 5w ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 92¢ | $155 |
| 5w ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 91¢ | $78 |
| 5w ago | UdonsanTop | Sell | No | 9.0¢ | $1 |
| 5w ago | clazzy1Mid | Buy | No | 37¢ | $3 |
| 7w ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | No | 65¢ | $7 |