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Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 28, 2026?

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $81·Volume $26.3K·Ends Sep 28, 2026
Price now:Yes54%No47%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 04:19computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Yes
57% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
78%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
57%price57%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$264 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered81¢57¢at 04:19(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Sep 28, 2026)Liquidity$81
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is strongly betting on "Yes", with $264 riding on it.

The price of 57% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 81¢; the price was 57¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $264 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Delayed 1h · as of 04:19
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
1w agoUdonsanTopBuyYes96¢$48
1w agoUdonsanTopBuyYes90¢$68
1w agoUdonsanTopBuyYes89¢$20
1w agoUdonsanTopBuyYes88¢$18
2w agoUdonsanTopBuyYes92¢$19
2w agoUdonsanTopBuyYes91¢$12
2w agoUdonsanTopBuyYes88¢$18
2w agoUdonsanTopBuyYes88¢$18
3w agoUdonsanTopBuyYes78¢$24
3w agoUdonsanTopBuyYes80¢$16
3w agoUdonsanTopBuyYes56¢$12
3w agoUdonsanTopBuyYes84¢$34
4w agoUdonsanTopBuyYes83¢$21
4w agoUdonsanTopBuyYes84¢$18
5w agoUdonsanTopBuyYes52¢$10
5w agoUdonsanTopBuyYes55¢$8
5w agoUdonsanTopBuyYes49¢$13
5w agoclazzy1MidBuyNo47¢$43
6w ago0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eMidBuyYes69¢$12
6w ago0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eMidBuyYes79¢$12