Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by December 31, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $2,875·Volume $10.3K·Ends Dec 31, 2026
Price now:Yes12%No88%
Smart money leans
No
89% at snapshot
Divergence
-0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
97%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
89%price89%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$2,566 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$392
72h +$467
Smart money entered84¢89¢at 07:32Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2h agoResolvesin 50d(Dec 31, 2026)Liquidity$2,875
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $2,566 riding on it.
The price of 89% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 84¢; the price was 89¢ at this snapshot.
Note: only $2,566 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$392, +$467 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:32
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2h ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | No | 89¢ | $18 |
| 5h ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | No | 89¢ | $18 |
| 15h ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | No | 89¢ | $107 |
| 17h ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | No | 89¢ | $107 |
| 18h ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | No | 88¢ | $70 |
| 18h ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | No | 88¢ | $70 |
| 2d ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | No | 89¢ | $16 |
| 2d ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | No | 89¢ | $16 |
| 2d ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | No | 89¢ | $43 |
| 6d ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | No | 89¢ | $31 |
| 6d ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 80¢ | $374 |
| 1w ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | No | 87¢ | $80 |
| 1w ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | No | 84¢ | $84 |
| 1w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 80¢ | $17 |
| 1w ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $86 |
| 1w ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $341 |
| 1w ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | No | 84¢ | $45 |
| 1w ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | No | 89¢ | $74 |
| 1w ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | No | 87¢ | $136 |
| 1w ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | No | 87¢ | $125 |
| 1w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 80¢ | $10 |
| 2w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 81¢ | $21 |
| 2w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 81¢ | $22 |
| 2w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 81¢ | $90 |
| 2w ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | No | 83¢ | $94 |
| 2w ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | No | 81¢ | $96 |
| 2w ago | petehegsethMid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $25 |
| 2w ago | petehegsethMid | Buy | Yes | 16¢ | $56 |
| 4w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 81¢ | $311 |
| 4w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 79¢ | $101 |
| 5w ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | No | 84¢ | $34 |
| 6w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $4 |