Will Sam Darnold have 23.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
ActiveLiquidity $557·Volume $2,301·Ends Jan 27, 2027
Price now:Yes12%No89%
Smart money leans
No
82% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
82%price82%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$344 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered63¢82¢at 07:56(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesin 73d(Jan 27, 2027)Liquidity$557
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $344 riding on it.
The price of 82% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 63¢; the price was 82¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $344 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.