Russia x Ukraine energy ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $1·Volume $0·Ends Nov 30, 2026
Price now:Yes21%No79%
Smart money leans
No
79% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
90%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
79%price79%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$1,907 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$3,883
72h +$3,883
Smart money entered74¢79¢at 07:29(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2h agoResolvesin 20d(Nov 30, 2026)Liquidity$1
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $1,907 riding on it.
The price of 79% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 74¢; the price was 79¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $1,907 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$3,883, +$3,883 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:29
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 79¢ | $95 |
| 1h ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 79¢ | $95 |
| 1h ago | BunCaChamMid | Sell | Yes | 21¢ | $11 |
| 1h ago | BunCaChamMid | Sell | Yes | 21¢ | $11 |
| 2h ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 78¢ | $162 |
| 2h ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 78¢ | $4 |
| 2h ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 74¢ | $1,736 |
| 2h ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 74¢ | $1,736 |
| 2h ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $125 |
| 2h ago | BunCaChamMid | Buy | Yes | 26¢ | $13 |
| 2h ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 78¢ | $4 |