Russia x Ukraine energy ceasefire agreement by November 15, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $0·Volume $0·Ends Nov 15, 2026
Price now:Yes8%No92%
Smart money leans
No
89% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
99%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
89%price89%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$2,092
72h +$2,092
Smart money entered88¢89¢at 07:24(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1h agoResolvesin 5d(Nov 15, 2026)Liquidity$0
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $0 riding on it.
The price of 89% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 88¢; the price was 89¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $0 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$2,092, +$2,092 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:24
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h ago | BunCaChamMid | Sell | Yes | 10¢ | $23 |
| 1h ago | BunCaChamMid | Sell | Yes | 10¢ | $23 |
| 1h ago | BunCaChamMid | Buy | Yes | 10¢ | $0 |
| 1h ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 88¢ | $2,062 |
| 1h ago | BunCaChamMid | Buy | Yes | 10¢ | $22 |