Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2027?
ActiveLiquidity $107.1K·Volume $94.2K·Ends Jan 1, 2028
Price now:Yes42%No59%
Smart money leans
Yes
42% at snapshot
Divergence
-0.1pp
model below price
Consensus
71%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
42%price41%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$1,331 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$164
72h +$234
Smart money entered47¢42¢at 02:33Edge leftnoneLast smart buy6h agoResolvesin 416d(Jan 1, 2028)Liquidity$107.1K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is strongly betting on "Yes", with $1,331 riding on it.
The price of 42% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 47¢; the price was 42¢ at this snapshot.
Note: only $1,331 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$164, +$234 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 02:33
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6h ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 41¢ | $139 |
| 13h ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 41¢ | $2 |
| 19h ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 41¢ | $20 |
| 2d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 41¢ | $69 |
| 3d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 41¢ | $3 |
| 3d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 41¢ | $240 |
| 5d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | No | 59¢ | $119 |
| 5d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | No | 59¢ | $100 |
| 5d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | No | 56¢ | $208 |
| 5d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | No | 65¢ | $117 |
| 5d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | No | 65¢ | $50 |
| 5d ago | 0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402Mid | Buy | No | 48¢ | $10,002 |
| 1w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | No | 48¢ | $44 |
| 1w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | No | 48¢ | $96 |
| 1w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | No | 48¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | No | 48¢ | $100 |
| 1w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 47¢ | $13 |
| 1w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 47¢ | $222 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 53¢ | $60 |
| 2w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 47¢ | $470 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 53¢ | $161 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 53¢ | $140 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 53¢ | $13 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 53¢ | $15 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 53¢ | $53 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 53¢ | $53 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 53¢ | $3 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 53¢ | $22 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 53¢ | $11 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 53¢ | $3 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 53¢ | $3 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 53¢ | $3 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 53¢ | $3 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 53¢ | $3 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 53¢ | $3 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 53¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 53¢ | $385 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 53¢ | $6 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 53¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 53¢ | $1 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 53¢ | $1 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 53¢ | $2 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 53¢ | $7 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 53¢ | $2 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 48¢ | $91 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 53¢ | $1 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 53¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 53¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 48¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 53¢ | $0 |