Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2027?
ActiveLiquidity $83.9K·Volume $75.2K·Ends Nov 1, 2027
Price now:Yes66%No34%
Smart money leans
No
34% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.1pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
34%price34%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$289 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$578
Smart money entered35¢34¢at 06:37(0% priced in)Edge left+0.1ppLast smart buy1d agoResolvesin 355d(Nov 1, 2027)Liquidity$83.9K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $289 riding on it.
The price of 34% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 35¢; the price was 34¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $289 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$578 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 06:37
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | congoterrierMid | Buy | No | 35¢ | $300 |
| 1d ago | congoterrierMid | Buy | No | 35¢ | $300 |