Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?
ActiveLiquidity $81.6K·Volume $360.8K·Ends Apr 1, 2027
Price now:Yes36%No65%
Smart money leans
Yes
36% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
83%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
36%price36%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$4,398 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered32¢36¢at 06:37(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy4d agoResolvesin 141d(Apr 1, 2027)Liquidity$81.6K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is strongly betting on "Yes", with $4,398 riding on it.
The price of 36% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 32¢; the price was 36¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $4,398 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 06:37
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 35¢ | $268 |
| 4d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 35¢ | $570 |
| 4d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 35¢ | $329 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 34¢ | $121 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 39¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 39¢ | $9 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 38¢ | $167 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 38¢ | $33 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 38¢ | $2 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 38¢ | $30 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 38¢ | $2 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 38¢ | $188 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 37¢ | $518 |
| 2w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 60¢ | $83 |
| 2w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 61¢ | $122 |
| 2w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 61¢ | $6 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 34¢ | $601 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 31¢ | $3,100 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $1 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 32¢ | $100 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 32¢ | $2 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 32¢ | $32 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 32¢ | $4 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $3 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 32¢ | $24 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 32¢ | $64 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 32¢ | $1 |