Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027?
ActiveLiquidity $52.9K·Volume $44.9K·Ends Mar 1, 2027
Price now:Yes28%No72%
Smart money leans
No
72% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
72%price72%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$2,376 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$3,030
Smart money entered75¢72¢at 07:16(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy1d agoResolvesin 110d(Mar 1, 2027)Liquidity$52.9K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $2,376 riding on it.
The price of 72% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 75¢; the price was 72¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $2,376 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$3,030 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:16
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 73¢ | $1,533 |
| 1d ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 73¢ | $1,533 |
| 3w ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 73¢ | $10 |
| 3w ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 73¢ | $21 |
| 3w ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 73¢ | $20 |
| 3w ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 73¢ | $51 |
| 5w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 78¢ | $156 |
| 5w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 78¢ | $433 |
| 5w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 79¢ | $143 |
| 5w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 79¢ | $94 |
| 6w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 32¢ | $786 |
| 7w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 31¢ | $6 |
| 8w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 37¢ | $256 |
| 9w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 37¢ | $642 |