Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?
ActiveLiquidity $130.6K·Volume $59.8K·Ends Jan 1, 2028
Price now:Yes70%No31%
Smart money leans
No
31% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
31%price31%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$5,390 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h -$90
Smart money entered29¢31¢at 06:40(32% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy2w agoResolvesin 416d(Jan 1, 2028)Liquidity$130.6K
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $5,390 riding on it.
The price of 31% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 29¢; the price was 31¢ at this snapshot — roughly 32% of their entry edge is already priced in.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have trimmed -$90 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 06:40
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22h ago | Voland6777Mid | Sell | No | 32¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | Voland6777Mid | Sell | No | 32¢ | $6 |
| 1d ago | Voland6777Mid | Sell | No | 32¢ | $6 |
| 1d ago | Voland6777Mid | Sell | No | 32¢ | $32 |
| 1d ago | Voland6777Mid | Sell | No | 32¢ | $32 |
| 1d ago | Voland6777Mid | Sell | No | 32¢ | $8 |
| 1d ago | Voland6777Mid | Sell | No | 32¢ | $8 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 28¢ | $8 |
| 2w ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 27¢ | $43 |
| 3w ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 32¢ | $16 |
| 3w ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 32¢ | $2 |
| 3w ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 32¢ | $1 |
| 3w ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 32¢ | $2 |
| 3w ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 32¢ | $1 |
| 3w ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 32¢ | $4 |
| 4w ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 28¢ | $1 |
| 4w ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 28¢ | $1 |
| 4w ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 28¢ | $1 |
| 4w ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 28¢ | $1 |
| 4w ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 28¢ | $1 |
| 4w ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 28¢ | $1 |
| 5w ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 30¢ | $15 |
| 5w ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 30¢ | $24 |
| 5w ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 30¢ | $1 |
| 6w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 27¢ | $5 |
| 6w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 27¢ | $0 |
| 6w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 27¢ | $9 |
| 6w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 27¢ | $132 |
| 6w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 27¢ | $27 |
| 6w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 27¢ | $3 |
| 7w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 27¢ | $81 |
| 7w ago | classifiedMid | Buy | No | 28¢ | $24 |
| 7w ago | classifiedMid | Buy | No | 28¢ | $0 |
| 7w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 27¢ | $263 |
| 7w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 27¢ | $15 |
| 7w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 27¢ | $0 |
| 7w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 27¢ | $1 |
| 7w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 27¢ | $46 |
| 7w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 27¢ | $1 |
| 7w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 27¢ | $25 |
| 7w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 27¢ | $1 |
| 7w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 27¢ | $0 |
| 7w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 27¢ | $313 |
| 7w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 30¢ | $919 |
| 7w ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 30¢ | $2,880 |
| 7w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 30¢ | $2 |
| 7w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 30¢ | $1 |
| 7w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 30¢ | $2 |
| 8w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 30¢ | $1 |
| 8w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 30¢ | $10 |