Will global temperature increase by more than 1.49ºC in October 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $3,626·Volume $8,829·Ends Dec 2, 2026
Price now:Yes96%No4%
Smart money leans
Yes
96% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
90%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
96%price96%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$2,100 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered62¢96¢at 07:33(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy6d agoResolvesin 21d(Dec 2, 2026)Liquidity$3,626
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $2,100 riding on it.
The price of 96% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 62¢; the price was 96¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $2,100 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:33
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d ago | balerinacapuchinaMid | Buy | Yes | 85¢ | $257 |
| 6d ago | balerinacapuchinaMid | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $97 |
| 1w ago | balerinacapuchinaMid | Buy | Yes | 70¢ | $560 |
| 1w ago | balerinacapuchinaMid | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | balerinacapuchinaMid | Buy | Yes | 65¢ | $611 |
| 1w ago | clazzy1Mid | Buy | No | 35¢ | $279 |
| 1w ago | balerinacapuchinaMid | Buy | Yes | 43¢ | $129 |
| 1w ago | balerinacapuchinaMid | Buy | Yes | 43¢ | $43 |
| 1w ago | balerinacapuchinaMid | Buy | Yes | 43¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | balerinacapuchinaMid | Buy | Yes | 43¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | balerinacapuchinaMid | Buy | Yes | 43¢ | $151 |
| 1w ago | balerinacapuchinaMid | Buy | Yes | 43¢ | $8 |
| 1w ago | balerinacapuchinaMid | Buy | Yes | 63¢ | $185 |
| 2w ago | balerinacapuchinaMid | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $9 |
| 2w ago | balerinacapuchinaMid | Buy | Yes | 36¢ | $36 |
| 2w ago | balerinacapuchinaMid | Buy | Yes | 41¢ | $17 |
| 3w ago | balerinacapuchinaMid | Buy | No | 70¢ | $4 |
| 5w ago | balerinacapuchinaMid | Buy | Yes | 74¢ | $4 |