Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by March 31, 2027?
ActiveLiquidity $10.6K·Volume $10.1K·Ends Apr 1, 2027
Price now:Yes16%No85%
Smart money leans
No
83% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
83%price83%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$1,892 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$370
Smart money entered77¢83¢at 06:34(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2d agoResolvesin 141d(Apr 1, 2027)Liquidity$10.6K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $1,892 riding on it.
The price of 83% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 77¢; the price was 83¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $1,892 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$370 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 06:34
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2d ago | pagliacci4Mid | Buy | No | 77¢ | $173 |
| 2d ago | pagliacci4Mid | Buy | No | 77¢ | $173 |
| 4w ago | pagliacci4Mid | Buy | No | 77¢ | $1,735 |
| 9w ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | Yes | 30¢ | $102 |
| 9w ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | Yes | 33¢ | $32 |
| 9w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 29¢ | $134 |