Next Israeli government formed by December 31, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $25.4K·Volume $59.8K·Ends Jul 1, 2027
Price now:Yes40%No60%
Smart money leans
Yes
40% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
40%price40%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$1,549 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$976
72h +$976
Smart money entered32¢40¢at 06:39(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy20h agoResolvesin 232d(Jul 1, 2027)Liquidity$25.4K
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $1,549 riding on it.
The price of 40% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 32¢; the price was 40¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$976, +$976 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 06:39
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20h ago | nnimroddMid | Buy | Yes | 41¢ | $500 |
| 20h ago | nnimroddMid | Buy | Yes | 41¢ | $500 |
| 5d ago | nnimroddMid | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $1,028 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $25 |
| 1w ago | HolyMoses7Mid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $25 |
| 1w ago | title1Mid | Buy | No | 71¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | title1Mid | Buy | No | 71¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | title1Mid | Sell | No | 74¢ | $188 |
| 1w ago | title1Mid | Buy | No | 73¢ | $158 |
| 1w ago | title1Mid | Sell | No | 70¢ | $44 |
| 2w ago | title1Mid | Buy | No | 66¢ | $66 |