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Spread: Magic (-2.5)

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $85.5K·Volume $35.4K·Ends Nov 12, 2026
Price now:Magic57%Jazz43%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 21:52computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Jazz
44% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.5pp
model above price
Consensus
88%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
44%price44%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$7,877 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$7,877
72h +$7,877
Smart money entered46¢44¢at 21:52(0% priced in)Edge left+0.5ppLast smart buy2h agoResolvesin 3h 8m(Nov 12, 2026)Liquidity$85.5K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Jazz", with $7,877 riding on it.

The price of 44% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 46¢; the price was 44¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$7,877, +$7,877 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 21:52
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
2h agoCAcapMidBuyJazz44¢$2
2h ago739633786MidBuyJazz44¢$226
2h ago739633786MidBuyJazz44¢$1,054
2h ago739633786MidBuyJazz44¢$14
2h ago739633786MidBuyJazz44¢$282
4h agokeeptheblueflagflyinghighMidBuyMagic55¢$470
4h agokeeptheblueflagflyinghighMidBuyMagic55¢$470
4h agoCAcapMidBuyMagic54¢$3
4h agoSunlineTickerMidBuyJazz46¢$2,098
4h agoCAcapMidBuyJazz46¢$2
4h agoSunlineTickerMidBuyJazz46¢$1,507
4h agoCAcapMidBuyJazz46¢$2
4h agoSunlineTickerMidBuyJazz46¢$727
4h agoSunlineTickerMidBuyJazz46¢$1
4h agoSunlineTickerMidBuyJazz45¢$439
4h agoSunlineTickerMidBuyJazz47¢$1,902
4h agoCAcapMidBuyJazz48¢$2
6h agoCAcapMidBuyJazz46¢$2
6h agoSnakeBallMidBuyJazz46¢$40