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Spread: Magic (-6.5)

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $249.9K·Volume $203.6K·Ends Nov 11, 2026
Price now:Magic46%Kings55%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 00:32computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Kings
54% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
95%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
54%price54%model est.*
Smart wallets
4
$6,760 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$14.0K
72h +$14.0K
Smart money entered51¢54¢at 00:32(66% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy4h agoResolvesin 1h 28m(Nov 11, 2026)Liquidity$249.9K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

4 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Kings", with $6,760 riding on it.

The price of 54% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 51¢; the price was 54¢ at this snapshot — roughly 66% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$14.0K, +$14.0K over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 00:32
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
4h agoCAcapMidBuyKings52¢$104
4h agoSnakeBallMidBuyKings52¢$40
4h ago0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksMidBuyMagic49¢$80
4h agoSnakeBallMidBuyKings50¢$6
4h agoSnakeBallMidBuyKings50¢$1
4h agoSnakeBallMidBuyKings50¢$22
4h agoSnakeBallMidBuyMagic49¢$40
4h ago0xheavy888MidBuyMagic49¢$10
6h ago739633786MidBuyKings51¢$1,288
6h ago739633786MidBuyKings51¢$1,288
8h agokeeptheblueflagflyinghighMidBuyKings51¢$5,343
8h agokeeptheblueflagflyinghighMidBuyKings51¢$5,343
11h agoSunlineTickerMidBuyMagic47¢$39
13h agoSunlineTickerMidBuyMagic47¢$1
13h agoSunlineTickerMidBuyMagic47¢$1
15h agoSunlineTickerMidBuyMagic47¢$13
16h agoSunlineTickerMidBuyMagic47¢$3
17h agoSunlineTickerMidBuyMagic47¢$4