Ryan Kalkbrenner: Points O/U 4.5
ActiveLiquidity $470·Volume $505·Ends Nov 13, 2026
Price now:Yes50%No50%
Smart money leans
Yes
50% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
71%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
50%price50%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$246 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$253
72h +$253
Smart money entered49¢50¢at 05:20(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy16h agoResolvesended(Nov 13, 2026)Liquidity$470
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is strongly betting on "Yes", with $246 riding on it.
The price of 50% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 49¢; the price was 50¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $246 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$253, +$253 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 05:20
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16h ago | 0x6dd9…bfe8Mid | Buy | No | 50¢ | $150 |
| 16h ago | 0x6dd9…bfe8Mid | Buy | No | 53¢ | $106 |
| 16h ago | fyrskenMid | Buy | Yes | 49¢ | $253 |