Israel military action against Lebanon on October 6?
ActiveLiquidity $230·Volume $8,567·Ends Oct 7, 2026
Price now:Yes99%No1%
Smart money leans
Yes
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$660
72h +$660
Smart money entered95¢99¢at 07:07(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy10h agoResolvesended(Oct 7, 2026)Liquidity$230
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $0 riding on it.
The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 95¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $0 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$660, +$660 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:07
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10h ago | yen4uMid | Buy | Yes | 97¢ | $49 |
| 10h ago | yen4uMid | Buy | Yes | 97¢ | $49 |
| 10h ago | yen4uMid | Buy | Yes | 95¢ | $4 |
| 10h ago | yen4uMid | Buy | Yes | 94¢ | $528 |
| 6d ago | UdonsanTop | Sell | No | 13¢ | $36 |
| 1w ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | No | 87¢ | $155 |
| 2w ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | No | 90¢ | $31 |
| 2w ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | No | 87¢ | $16 |
| 3w ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | No | 87¢ | $4 |
| 3w ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $34 |
| 4w ago | clazzy1Mid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $19 |