Israel military action against Lebanon on November 8?
ActiveLiquidity $606·Volume $6,435·Ends Nov 9, 2026
Price now:Yes96%No4%
Smart money leans
Yes
96% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
96%price96%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$1,456 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$216
72h +$2,730
Smart money entered94¢96¢at 07:16(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy15h agoResolvesended(Nov 9, 2026)Liquidity$606
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $1,456 riding on it.
The price of 96% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 94¢; the price was 96¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $1,456 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$216, +$2,730 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:16
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15h ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $178 |
| 17h ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $19 |
| 17h ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $19 |
| 1d ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $105 |
| 1d ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $105 |
| 1d ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $57 |
| 1d ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $57 |
| 1d ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 97¢ | $126 |
| 1d ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 97¢ | $126 |
| 1d ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 95¢ | $136 |
| 1d ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 95¢ | $136 |
| 1d ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 95¢ | $5 |
| 1d ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 95¢ | $47 |
| 1d ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 95¢ | $47 |
| 1d ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 93¢ | $166 |
| 1d ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 93¢ | $166 |
| 1d ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 93¢ | $19 |
| 1d ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 93¢ | $19 |
| 1d ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 92¢ | $337 |
| 1d ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 92¢ | $337 |
| 1d ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 94¢ | $134 |
| 1d ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 94¢ | $134 |
| 1d ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 97¢ | $49 |
| 1d ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 92¢ | $18 |
| 1d ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 92¢ | $18 |
| 1d ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $61 |
| 1d ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $61 |
| 3d ago | viniiTop | Sell | No | 21¢ | $1 |
| 3d ago | viniiTop | Sell | No | 21¢ | $1 |
| 3d ago | viniiTop | Sell | No | 21¢ | $1 |
| 3d ago | viniiTop | Sell | No | 21¢ | $1 |
| 3d ago | viniiTop | Sell | No | 21¢ | $1 |
| 3d ago | viniiTop | Sell | No | 21¢ | $1 |
| 3d ago | viniiTop | Sell | No | 21¢ | $1 |
| 3d ago | viniiTop | Sell | No | 21¢ | $45 |
| 3d ago | viniiTop | Sell | No | 21¢ | $12 |
| 4d ago | viniiTop | Buy | No | 19¢ | $7 |
| 4d ago | viniiTop | Buy | Yes | 79¢ | $198 |
| 4d ago | viniiTop | Buy | No | 15¢ | $105 |