Israel military action against Greater Beirut by November 30?
ActiveLiquidity $16.2K·Volume $6,563·Ends Dec 1, 2026
Price now:Yes10%No90%
Smart money leans
No
90% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
83%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
90%price90%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$1,142 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered70¢90¢at 07:12(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesin 20d(Dec 1, 2026)Liquidity$16.2K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is strongly betting on "No", with $1,142 riding on it.
The price of 90% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 70¢; the price was 90¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $1,142 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:12
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960Mid | Buy | No | 58¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | 52centisTop | Buy | Yes | 33¢ | $130 |
| 1w ago | 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960Mid | Buy | No | 67¢ | $253 |
| 1w ago | 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960Mid | Buy | No | 67¢ | $61 |
| 1w ago | 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960Mid | Buy | No | 67¢ | $491 |
| 1w ago | 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960Mid | Buy | No | 80¢ | $236 |
| 1w ago | 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960Mid | Buy | No | 78¢ | $86 |
| 1w ago | 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960Mid | Buy | No | 80¢ | $16 |