Israel military action against Greater Beirut by December 31?
ActiveLiquidity $1,628·Volume $50·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes18%No82%
Smart money leans
No
82% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
82%price82%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$131 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$313
72h +$313
Smart money entered69¢82¢at 07:08(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy9h agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$1,628
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $131 riding on it.
The price of 82% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 69¢; the price was 82¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $131 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$313, +$313 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:08
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9h ago | 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960Mid | Buy | No | 69¢ | $131 |
| 9h ago | 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960Mid | Buy | No | 69¢ | $131 |