Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 4?
ActiveLiquidity $21·Volume $5,366·Ends Oct 5, 2026
Price now:Yes50%No50%
Smart money leans
Yes
50% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
50%price50%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$273 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered83¢50¢at 07:08(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Oct 5, 2026)Liquidity$21
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $273 riding on it.
The price of 50% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 83¢; the price was 50¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $273 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:08
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 93¢ | $64 |
| 1w ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 88¢ | $62 |
| 1w ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 87¢ | $35 |
| 1w ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 89¢ | $54 |
| 2w ago | UdonsanTop | Sell | Yes | 92¢ | $151 |
| 2w ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 86¢ | $95 |
| 3w ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 88¢ | $37 |
| 3w ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 86¢ | $18 |
| 3w ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 74¢ | $30 |
| 3w ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 64¢ | $26 |
| 3w ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 66¢ | $13 |
| 4w ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 60¢ | $13 |
| 4w ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 52¢ | $11 |
| 4w ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 88¢ | $62 |
| 4w ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 87¢ | $17 |
| 4w ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 75¢ | $30 |
| 4w ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | Yes | 62¢ | $13 |