Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on November 12?
ActiveLiquidity $0·Volume $0·Ends Nov 12, 2026
Price now:Yes100%No0%
Smart money leans
Yes
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$198
72h +$449
Smart money entered65¢100¢at 05:28(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy7h agoResolvesended(Nov 12, 2026)Liquidity$0
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $0 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 65¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $0 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$198, +$449 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 05:28
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7h ago | 0xae5b…ab1bMid | Buy | Yes | 100¢ | $99 |
| 7h ago | 0xae5b…ab1bMid | Buy | Yes | 100¢ | $99 |
| 1d ago | WrongBy1DegreeMid | Buy | Yes | 38¢ | $89 |
| 1d ago | OnlyLuckNoBrainTop | Sell | No | 68¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | WrongBy1DegreeMid | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $30 |
| 1d ago | WrongBy1DegreeMid | Buy | No | 58¢ | $10 |
| 1d ago | OnlyLuckNoBrainTop | Sell | No | 52¢ | $2 |
| 2d ago | OnlyLuckNoBrainTop | Buy | No | 56¢ | $17 |