Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on November 13?
ActiveLiquidity $30·Volume $0·Ends Nov 13, 2026
Price now:Yes23%No77%
Smart money leans
Yes
30% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.2pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
30%price30%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$131 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$262
72h +$262
Smart money entered31¢30¢at 09:21(0% priced in)Edge left+0.2ppLast smart buy2h agoResolvesin 2d(Nov 13, 2026)Liquidity$30
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $131 riding on it.
The price of 30% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 31¢; the price was 30¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $131 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$262, +$262 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 09:21
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2h ago | 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0Top | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $52 |
| 2h ago | 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0Top | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $52 |
| 3h ago | 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0Top | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $54 |
| 3h ago | 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0Top | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $54 |
| 3h ago | 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0Top | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $29 |
| 3h ago | 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0Top | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $29 |