Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on November 16?
ActiveLiquidity $32·Volume $0·Ends Nov 16, 2026
Price now:Yes20%No80%
Smart money leans
No
80% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
80%price80%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$149 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$301
72h +$301
Smart money entered79¢80¢at 07:00(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1h agoResolvesin 2d(Nov 16, 2026)Liquidity$32
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $149 riding on it.
The price of 80% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 79¢; the price was 80¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $149 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$301, +$301 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:00
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h ago | 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0Top | Buy | No | 79¢ | $44 |
| 1h ago | 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0Top | Buy | No | 79¢ | $44 |
| 1h ago | 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0Top | Buy | No | 80¢ | $115 |
| 1h ago | 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0Top | Buy | No | 80¢ | $115 |
| 2h ago | 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0Top | Buy | No | 78¢ | $39 |
| 2h ago | 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0Top | Buy | No | 78¢ | $39 |
| 2h ago | 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0Top | Buy | Yes | 21¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0Top | Buy | Yes | 21¢ | $24 |
| 2h ago | hello.67Mid | Buy | No | 79¢ | $90 |
| 2h ago | 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0Top | Buy | Yes | 21¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | hello.67Mid | Buy | No | 79¢ | $90 |
| 2h ago | 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0Top | Buy | Yes | 21¢ | $24 |