Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on November 16?
ActiveLiquidity $33·Volume $0·Ends Nov 16, 2026
Price now:Yes28%No72%
Smart money leans
No
69% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.1pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
69%price69%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$160 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$320
72h +$320
Smart money entered70¢69¢at 07:00(0% priced in)Edge left+0.1ppLast smart buy1h agoResolvesin 2d(Nov 16, 2026)Liquidity$33
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $160 riding on it.
The price of 69% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 70¢; the price was 69¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $160 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$320, +$320 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:00
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h ago | 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98Top | Buy | No | 69¢ | $107 |
| 1h ago | hello.67Mid | Buy | No | 70¢ | $13 |
| 1h ago | hello.67Mid | Buy | No | 71¢ | $41 |
| 1h ago | hello.67Mid | Buy | No | 71¢ | $41 |
| 1h ago | 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98Top | Buy | No | 69¢ | $107 |
| 1h ago | hello.67Mid | Buy | No | 70¢ | $13 |