Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on November 12?
ActiveLiquidity $4·Volume $0·Ends Nov 12, 2026
Price now:Yes0%No100%
Smart money leans
No
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$200 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$400
72h +$400
Smart money entered100¢100¢at 05:23(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy7h agoResolvesended(Nov 12, 2026)Liquidity$4
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $200 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 100¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $200 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$400, +$400 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 05:23
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7h ago | 0xae5b…ab1bMid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $200 |
| 7h ago | 0xae5b…ab1bMid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $200 |
| 1d ago | OnlyLuckNoBrainTop | Buy | Yes | 10¢ | $2 |
| 2d ago | OnlyLuckNoBrainTop | Sell | No | 86¢ | $29 |
| 2d ago | OnlyLuckNoBrainTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $10 |
| 2d ago | OnlyLuckNoBrainTop | Buy | No | 74¢ | $14 |
| 2d ago | OnlyLuckNoBrainTop | Buy | No | 69¢ | $2 |