TailSlip
Log in

Command Palette

Search for a command to run...

Government shutdown by December 31?

ActiveLiquidity $25.9K·Volume $14.2K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes41%No59%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 14:09computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
No
59% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.1pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
59%price59%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$391 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$566
72h +$566
Smart money entered61¢59¢at 14:09(0% priced in)Edge left+0.1ppLast smart buy3h agoResolvesin 52d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$25.9K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $391 riding on it.

The price of 59% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 61¢; the price was 59¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $391 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$566, +$566 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 14:09
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
3h agoPondermintTopBuyNo61¢$162
3h agoPondermintTopBuyNo61¢$21
3h agoPondermintTopBuyNo61¢$31
3h agoPondermintTopBuyNo62¢$62
3h agoPondermintTopBuyNo61¢$21
3h agoPondermintTopBuyNo61¢$31
3h agoPondermintTopBuyNo62¢$62
9h agoPondermintTopBuyNo63¢$4
9h agoPondermintTopBuyNo63¢$59
9h agoPondermintTopBuyNo63¢$4
9h agoPondermintTopBuyNo63¢$59
10h agoPondermintTopBuyNo65¢$13
10h agoPondermintTopBuyNo65¢$13
10h agoPondermintTopBuyNo61¢$31
11h agoPondermintTopSellNo62¢$32
11h agoPondermintTopSellNo62¢$32
11h agoPondermintTopSellNo62¢$36
11h agoPondermintTopSellNo62¢$36
16h agoPondermintTopBuyNo60¢$31
22h agoPondermintTopBuyNo58¢$58
22h agoPondermintTopBuyNo58¢$58