Government shutdown by December 31?
ActiveLiquidity $25.9K·Volume $14.2K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes41%No59%
Smart money leans
No
59% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.1pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
59%price59%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$391 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$566
72h +$566
Smart money entered61¢59¢at 14:09(0% priced in)Edge left+0.1ppLast smart buy3h agoResolvesin 52d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$25.9K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $391 riding on it.
The price of 59% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 61¢; the price was 59¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $391 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$566, +$566 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 14:09
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | PondermintTop | Buy | No | 61¢ | $162 |
| 3h ago | PondermintTop | Buy | No | 61¢ | $21 |
| 3h ago | PondermintTop | Buy | No | 61¢ | $31 |
| 3h ago | PondermintTop | Buy | No | 62¢ | $62 |
| 3h ago | PondermintTop | Buy | No | 61¢ | $21 |
| 3h ago | PondermintTop | Buy | No | 61¢ | $31 |
| 3h ago | PondermintTop | Buy | No | 62¢ | $62 |
| 9h ago | PondermintTop | Buy | No | 63¢ | $4 |
| 9h ago | PondermintTop | Buy | No | 63¢ | $59 |
| 9h ago | PondermintTop | Buy | No | 63¢ | $4 |
| 9h ago | PondermintTop | Buy | No | 63¢ | $59 |
| 10h ago | PondermintTop | Buy | No | 65¢ | $13 |
| 10h ago | PondermintTop | Buy | No | 65¢ | $13 |
| 10h ago | PondermintTop | Buy | No | 61¢ | $31 |
| 11h ago | PondermintTop | Sell | No | 62¢ | $32 |
| 11h ago | PondermintTop | Sell | No | 62¢ | $32 |
| 11h ago | PondermintTop | Sell | No | 62¢ | $36 |
| 11h ago | PondermintTop | Sell | No | 62¢ | $36 |
| 16h ago | PondermintTop | Buy | No | 60¢ | $31 |
| 22h ago | PondermintTop | Buy | No | 58¢ | $58 |
| 22h ago | PondermintTop | Buy | No | 58¢ | $58 |