Will the Democrats sweep the House and Senate and Israel and Hamas not agree to ceasefire Phase II by the end of 2027?
ActiveLiquidity $2,926·Volume $4,579·Ends Jan 1, 2028
Price now:Yes70%No30%
Smart money leans
Yes
71% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
71%price71%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$701 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered55¢71¢at 07:13(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesin 416d(Jan 1, 2028)Liquidity$2,926
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $701 riding on it.
The price of 71% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 55¢; the price was 71¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $701 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:13
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d ago | MenacingTurtleMid | Sell | Yes | 92¢ | $22 |
| 6d ago | MenacingTurtleMid | Sell | Yes | 93¢ | $414 |
| 1w ago | MenacingTurtleMid | Buy | No | 33¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | MenacingTurtleMid | Buy | Yes | 55¢ | $1,017 |