Will the Democrats sweep the House and Senate and US gas not hit $3.50 by the end of 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $951·Volume $5,890·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes47%No53%
Smart money leans
Yes
47% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
47%price47%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$419 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered58¢47¢at 07:30(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy6d agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$951
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $419 riding on it.
The price of 47% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 58¢; the price was 47¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $419 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:30
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d ago | MenacingTurtleMid | Buy | Yes | 89¢ | $754 |
| 6d ago | MenacingTurtleMid | Buy | Yes | 90¢ | $5 |
| 6d ago | MenacingTurtleMid | Buy | Yes | 90¢ | $9 |
| 1w ago | MenacingTurtleMid | Buy | Yes | 81¢ | $246 |
| 1w ago | MenacingTurtleMid | Buy | No | 21¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | MenacingTurtleMid | Buy | No | 21¢ | $45 |
| 1w ago | MenacingTurtleMid | Buy | Yes | 78¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | MenacingTurtleMid | Buy | Yes | 76¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | MenacingTurtleMid | Buy | Yes | 73¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | MenacingTurtleMid | Buy | Yes | 72¢ | $74 |
| 1w ago | MenacingTurtleMid | Buy | Yes | 70¢ | $6 |
| 1w ago | MenacingTurtleMid | Buy | Yes | 70¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | MenacingTurtleMid | Buy | Yes | 69¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | MenacingTurtleMid | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $137 |