Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before June 30, 2027?
ActiveLiquidity $28.6K·Volume $11.8K·Ends Jul 1, 2027
Price now:Yes21%No79%
Smart money leans
No
79% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
79%price79%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$830 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered79¢79¢at 07:31(12% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy6d agoResolvesin 232d(Jul 1, 2027)Liquidity$28.6K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $830 riding on it.
The price of 79% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 79¢; the price was 79¢ at this snapshot — roughly 12% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $830 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:31
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d ago | justme003Mid | Buy | No | 79¢ | $837 |