Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2027?
ActiveLiquidity $47.2K·Volume $15.6K·Ends Jan 1, 2028
Price now:Yes38%No63%
Smart money leans
No
63% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
63%price63%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$605 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered52¢63¢at 07:27(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy3w agoResolvesin 416d(Jan 1, 2028)Liquidity$47.2K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $605 riding on it.
The price of 63% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 52¢; the price was 63¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $605 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.