Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET
ActiveLiquidity $8,960·Volume $10·Ends Nov 12, 2026
Price now:Up100%Down0%
Smart money leans
Up
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$3,116
72h +$3,116
Smart money entered100¢100¢at 06:53(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2h agoResolvesended(Nov 12, 2026)Liquidity$8,960
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Up", with $0 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 100¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $0 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$3,116, +$3,116 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 06:53
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2h ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $100 |
| 2h ago | 0x50f7Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $2,989 |
| 2h ago | 0x50f7Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | 0x50f7Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $15 |
| 2h ago | 0x50f7Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $15 |
| 2h ago | pspspsps5Mid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | 0x50f7Mid | Buy | Down | 2.0¢ | $0 |
| 2h ago | soswald1Mid | Sell | Up | 68¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bMid | Sell | Down | 27¢ | $3 |
| 2h ago | 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bMid | Sell | Up | 51¢ | $3 |