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Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $8,504·Volume $0·Ends Nov 12, 2026
Price now:Up1%Down100%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 02:57computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Down
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$1,001
72h +$1,001
Smart money entered98¢100¢at 02:57(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1h agoResolvesended(Nov 12, 2026)Liquidity$8,504
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Down", with $0 riding on it.

The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 98¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$1,001, +$1,001 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 02:57
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
1h ago0x0997…c9f6MidBuyDown99¢$298
1h ago0x0997…c9f6MidBuyDown99¢$298
1h ago0x0997…c9f6MidBuyDown99¢$50
1h ago0x0997…c9f6MidBuyDown99¢$99
1h ago0x0997…c9f6MidBuyDown99¢$50
1h ago0x0997…c9f6MidBuyDown99¢$99
1h agososwald1MidBuyDown88¢$5
1h agososwald1MidBuyDown87¢$4
1h agososwald1MidBuyDown92¢$5
1h agososwald1MidBuyDown88¢$5
1h agososwald1MidBuyDown87¢$4
1h agososwald1MidBuyDown92¢$5
1h agososwald1MidBuyDown88¢$5
1h agososwald1MidBuyDown88¢$5
1h agososwald1MidBuyDown87¢$4
1h agososwald1MidBuyDown87¢$4
1h agososwald1MidBuyDown78¢$4
1h agososwald1MidBuyDown78¢$4
1h agososwald1MidBuyUp41¢$2
1h agososwald1MidBuyUp41¢$2
1h agososwald1MidBuyUp19¢$1
1h agososwald1MidBuyUp19¢$1
1h ago0x5e8e…8212MidBuyDown95¢$5
1h agososwald1MidBuyUp7.0¢$0
1h agososwald1MidBuyUp7.0¢$0
1h agososwald1MidBuyUp6.0¢$1
1h agososwald1MidBuyUp7.0¢$1
1h agososwald1MidBuyUp6.0¢$1
1h agososwald1MidBuyUp7.0¢$1
1h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown96¢$12
1h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown97¢$5
1h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown96¢$12
1h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown96¢$12
1h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown97¢$5
1h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown96¢$12
1h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown97¢$19
1h ago0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bMidSellDown98¢$5
1h agoG-Penis-MonsterTopBuyDown91¢$14
1h agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown91¢$15
1h agoohioismTopBuyDown93¢$47
1h agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp8.0¢$1
1h agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp8.0¢$1
1h agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp8.0¢$2
1h agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown91¢$15
1h agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp8.0¢$1
1h agoohioismTopBuyDown93¢$47
1h agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp8.0¢$2
1h agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp8.0¢$1
1h agoG-Penis-MonsterTopBuyDown91¢$14
1h agoG-Penis-MonsterTopBuyUp7.0¢$3