Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET
ActiveLiquidity $12.7K·Volume $12·Ends Nov 15, 2026
Price now:Up0%Down100%
Smart money leans
Down
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
8
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$3,066
72h +$3,066
Smart money entered93¢100¢at 06:56(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1h agoResolvesended(Nov 15, 2026)Liquidity$12.7K
Explanation
8 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Down", with $0 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 93¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$3,066, +$3,066 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 06:56
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h ago | 0x4c09…c918Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $13 |
| 1h ago | 0x4c09…c918Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $565 |
| 1h ago | 0x4c09…c918Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $32 |
| 1h ago | 0x4c09…c918Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $40 |
| 1h ago | 0x9587…c10aTop | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $990 |
| 1h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Up | 1.0¢ | $7 |
| 1h ago | 0x00b1…62beMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $40 |
| 1h ago | 0x1b89…cb5aMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $895 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 1h ago | 0x9587…c10aTop | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $990 |
| 1h ago | 0x1b89…cb5aMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $95 |
| 1h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $0 |
| 1h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $139 |
| 1h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $119 |
| 1h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $29 |
| 1h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $0 |
| 1h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $0 |
| 1h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $99 |
| 1h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $307 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 3.0¢ | $0 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 9.0¢ | $3 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 9.0¢ | $0 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 11¢ | $0 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 13¢ | $1 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 14¢ | $3 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 13¢ | $2 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 11¢ | $0 |
| 1h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 86¢ | $33 |
| 1h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 86¢ | $28 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 14¢ | $1 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 14¢ | $2 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 13¢ | $2 |
| 1h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 87¢ | $29 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 32¢ | $1 |
| 1h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 87¢ | $37 |
| 1h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 87¢ | $3 |
| 1h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 87¢ | $40 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 14¢ | $1 |
| 1h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 86¢ | $11 |
| 1h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 86¢ | $11 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 14¢ | $1 |
| 1h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 21¢ | $18 |
| 1h ago | ohioismTop | Buy | Down | 52¢ | $18 |
| 1h ago | ohioismTop | Buy | Down | 52¢ | $18 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 14¢ | $1 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 14¢ | $2 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 14¢ | $1 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 14¢ | $1 |
| 1h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 72¢ | $13 |
| 1h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 72¢ | $5 |