Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET
ActiveLiquidity $12.7K·Volume $2·Ends Nov 15, 2026
Price now:Up1%Down99%
Smart-money signal
What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 06:56Smart money exiting · $931 sold 24hcomputed 1h agoSmart money leans
Down
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
4
$296 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
-$234
72h -$234
Smart money entered62¢99¢at 06:56(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1h agoResolvesended(Nov 15, 2026)Liquidity$12.7K
Explanation
4 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Down", with $296 riding on it.
The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 62¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Warning: wallets that backed "Down" are now net selling it — followers usually exit when the wallets they follow do.
Note: only $296 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been trimming this position (-$234, -$234 over 3 days) — a sign conviction may be fading.
Delayed 1h · as of 06:56
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h ago | G-Penis-MonsterMid | Buy | Up | 15¢ | $2 |
| 1h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 83¢ | $8 |
| 1h ago | 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025Mid | Buy | Up | 14¢ | $1 |
| 1h ago | 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025Mid | Buy | Up | 14¢ | $0 |
| 1h ago | G-Penis-MonsterMid | Buy | Up | 15¢ | $2 |
| 1h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 83¢ | $6 |
| 1h ago | 0x5916ce250c0b3e32eed3303ffb2938cab0b42a0bMid | Sell | Down | 94¢ | $26 |
| 1h ago | 0x5916ce250c0b3e32eed3303ffb2938cab0b42a0bMid | Sell | Down | 94¢ | $26 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 12¢ | $1 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 13¢ | $1 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 89¢ | $1 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 90¢ | $5 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 91¢ | $5 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 91¢ | $32 |
| 1h ago | ohioismTop | Buy | Down | 89¢ | $22 |
| 1h ago | ohioismTop | Buy | Down | 89¢ | $22 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 87¢ | $4 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 85¢ | $4 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 88¢ | $8 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 86¢ | $4 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 88¢ | $5 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 88¢ | $4 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 87¢ | $26 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 87¢ | $4 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 88¢ | $18 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 88¢ | $0 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 87¢ | $4 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 87¢ | $30 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 87¢ | $4 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 80¢ | $4 |
| 1h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 29¢ | $0 |
| 1h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 29¢ | $7 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 71¢ | $4 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 31¢ | $2 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 31¢ | $11 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 32¢ | $2 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 32¢ | $11 |
| 1h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 72¢ | $18 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 30¢ | $2 |
| 1h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 71¢ | $18 |
| 1h ago | 0x5916ce250c0b3e32eed3303ffb2938cab0b42a0bMid | Sell | Down | 82¢ | $18 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 83¢ | $4 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 82¢ | $4 |
| 1h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 82¢ | $10 |
| 1h ago | BossgirlTop | Buy | Down | 82¢ | $8 |
| 1h ago | BossgirlTop | Buy | Down | 82¢ | $5 |
| 1h ago | BossgirlTop | Buy | Down | 82¢ | $8 |
| 1h ago | BossgirlTop | Buy | Down | 82¢ | $5 |
| 1h ago | ohioismTop | Buy | Up | 20¢ | $0 |
| 1h ago | ohioismTop | Buy | Up | 20¢ | $0 |