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Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $12.9K·Volume $0·Ends Nov 15, 2026
Price now:Up0%Down100%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 06:56Smart money exiting · $428 sold 24hcomputed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Down
100% at snapshot
Divergence
-0.1pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
6
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$464
72h +$464
Smart money entered95¢100¢at 06:56Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2h agoResolvesended(Nov 15, 2026)Liquidity$12.9K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

6 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Down", with $0 riding on it.

The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 95¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot.

Warning: wallets that backed "Down" are now net selling it — followers usually exit when the wallets they follow do.

Note: only $0 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$464, +$464 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 06:56
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
2h ago0x4c09…c918MidBuyDown100¢$4
2h ago0x4c09…c918MidBuyDown100¢$21
2h ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$40
2h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$403
2h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$0
2h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$156
2h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$16
2h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$118
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown99¢$5
2h agopspspsps5MidBuyUp1.0¢$1
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown98¢$5
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown98¢$5
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown97¢$5
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown95¢$5
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown95¢$33
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown96¢$5
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown94¢$10
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown94¢$0
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown94¢$5
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown91¢$5
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown91¢$25
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown91¢$2
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown91¢$5
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown91¢$5
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown93¢$5
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown94¢$11
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown94¢$1
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown94¢$11
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown94¢$3
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown94¢$1
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown94¢$1
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown95¢$5
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown96¢$34
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown96¢$5
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown94¢$5
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown93¢$0
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown93¢$4
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown91¢$5
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown88¢$4
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown87¢$4
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown87¢$30
2h ago0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025MidBuyUp12¢$0
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown88¢$4
2h agoohioismTopBuyUp13¢$0
2h agoohioismTopBuyUp13¢$1
2h agoohioismTopBuyUp13¢$1
2h agoohioismTopBuyUp13¢$0
2h agoohioismTopBuyUp13¢$2
2h agoohioismTopBuyUp13¢$2
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown89¢$4