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Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $10.7K·Volume $0·Ends Nov 15, 2026
Price now:Up100%Down0%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 05:50computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Up
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
5
$80 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$2,247
72h +$2,247
Smart money entered95¢100¢at 05:50(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1h agoResolvesended(Nov 15, 2026)Liquidity$10.7K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

5 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Up", with $80 riding on it.

The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 95¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$2,247, +$2,247 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 05:50
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
1h ago0x440b…6570MidBuyUp100¢$1
1h ago0x440b…6570MidBuyUp100¢$4
1h ago0x440b…6570MidBuyUp100¢$5
1h ago0x440b…6570MidBuyUp100¢$5
1h ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyUp99¢$40
1h ago0xeba7…2d1fMidBuyUp99¢$141
1h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown1.0¢$7
1h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyUp99¢$446
1h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyUp99¢$247
1h ago0x8e77…25f8MidBuyUp99¢$1,960
1h agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp97¢$50
1h agoohioismTopBuyDown3.0¢$1
1h agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp97¢$21
1h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyDown5.0¢$1
1h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyDown5.0¢$1
1h ago0x5916ce250c0b3e32eed3303ffb2938cab0b42a0bMidSellUp97¢$26
1h ago0x5916ce250c0b3e32eed3303ffb2938cab0b42a0bMidSellUp97¢$26
1h agopspspsps5MidBuyUp95¢$26
1h ago0xef41…bc91MidSellUp93¢$249
1h ago0xef41…bc91MidSellUp93¢$249
1h agoPBot-5MidBuyDown16¢$0
1h agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown14¢$0
1h agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown14¢$0
1h agoPBot-5MidBuyDown16¢$0
1h agoG-Penis-MonsterMidBuyDown21¢$4
1h agoG-Penis-MonsterMidBuyDown21¢$4
1h agomachine-earningMidSellUp81¢$1
1h ago0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025MidBuyDown21¢$1
1h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyDown22¢$3
1h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyDown22¢$3
1h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyDown23¢$1
1h agomachine-earningMidSellUp81¢$3
1h agoohioismTopBuyDown19¢$2
1h agoohioismTopBuyDown19¢$2
1h agomachine-earningMidSellUp84¢$4
1h agomachine-earningMidSellUp84¢$5
1h agomachine-earningMidSellUp83¢$4
1h agoG-Penis-MonsterMidBuyDown28¢$6
1h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyDown29¢$9
1h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyDown29¢$9
1h ago0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025MidBuyDown26¢$5
1h agomachine-earningMidSellDown27¢$1
1h ago0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025MidBuyDown26¢$5
1h ago0xef41…bc91MidBuyUp71¢$100
1h agomachine-earningMidSellUp71¢$4
1h ago0xef41…bc91MidBuyUp71¢$100
1h agomachine-earningMidSellDown32¢$0
1h agomachine-earningMidSellDown27¢$1
1h agomachine-earningMidSellDown22¢$1
1h ago0xef41…bc91MidBuyUp83¢$100