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Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $11.2K·Volume $2·Ends Nov 15, 2026
Price now:Up50%Down50%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 05:51computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Up
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$3,135 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$3,285
72h +$3,285
Smart money entered94¢100¢at 05:51(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2h agoResolvesended(Nov 15, 2026)Liquidity$11.2K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Up", with $3,135 riding on it.

The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 94¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $3,135 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$3,285, +$3,285 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 05:51
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
2h ago0x4c09…c918MidBuyUp100¢$10
2h ago0x00b1…62beMidSellUp99¢$40
2h ago0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710MidBuyDown1.0¢$0
2h ago0xef41…bc91MidBuyUp95¢$5
2h agomachine-earningMidSellUp85¢$4
2h ago0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025MidBuyDown22¢$1
2h ago0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025MidBuyDown22¢$1
2h ago0x5916ce250c0b3e32eed3303ffb2938cab0b42a0bMidSellUp80¢$6
2h ago0x5916ce250c0b3e32eed3303ffb2938cab0b42a0bMidSellUp80¢$6
2h ago0xef41…bc91MidBuyUp75¢$100
2h ago0xef41…bc91MidBuyUp75¢$100
2h agomachine-earningMidSellUp75¢$5
2h agomachine-earningMidSellUp75¢$4
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown31¢$2
2h agomachine-earningMidSellUp72¢$4
2h agomachine-earningMidSellUp72¢$25
2h agomachine-earningMidSellUp71¢$4
2h ago0xef41…bc91MidBuyUp72¢$100
2h ago0xef41…bc91MidBuyUp72¢$100
2h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp68¢$24
2h agoohioismTopBuyUp69¢$41
2h agomachine-earningMidSellUp72¢$4
2h agomachine-earningMidSellUp70¢$4
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown57¢$3
2h ago0xef41…bc91MidSellDown52¢$83
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown58¢$0
2h agomachine-earningMidSellUp48¢$2
2h ago0xef41…bc91MidSellDown52¢$83
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown57¢$3
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown60¢$3
2h agoPBot-5MidBuyUp45¢$2
2h agoohioismTopBuyDown49¢$7
2h agoohioismTopBuyDown49¢$7
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown61¢$2
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown61¢$3
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown61¢$3
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown61¢$0
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown61¢$3
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown61¢$3
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown61¢$10
2h ago0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025MidBuyDown60¢$2
2h ago0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025MidBuyDown60¢$2
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown60¢$3
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown59¢$3
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown58¢$3
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown59¢$0
2h agoohioismTopBuyDown58¢$20
2h agoohioismTopBuyDown58¢$20
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown58¢$3
2h agoG-Penis-MonsterMidBuyDown66¢$10