Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET
ActiveLiquidity $12.7K·Volume $24·Ends Nov 15, 2026
Price now:Up100%Down0%
Smart money leans
Up
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$1,970
72h +$1,970
Smart money entered98¢100¢at 05:51(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy3h agoResolvesended(Nov 15, 2026)Liquidity$12.7K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Up", with $0 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 98¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $0 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$1,970, +$1,970 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 05:51
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | 0xd749…9b2cMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $99 |
| 3h ago | 0x8e77…25f8Mid | Buy | Up | 98¢ | $1,940 |
| 3h ago | 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025Mid | Buy | Up | 94¢ | $12 |
| 3h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 89¢ | $8 |
| 3h ago | 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025Mid | Buy | Down | 11¢ | $2 |
| 3h ago | G-Penis-MonsterMid | Buy | Down | 11¢ | $4 |
| 3h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 83¢ | $3 |
| 3h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 83¢ | $11 |
| 3h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 85¢ | $6 |
| 3h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 83¢ | $25 |
| 3h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 85¢ | $9 |
| 3h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 85¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 17¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 85¢ | $6 |
| 3h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 85¢ | $9 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 7.0¢ | $0 |
| 3h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 85¢ | $6 |
| 3h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 85¢ | $15 |
| 3h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 94¢ | $16 |
| 3h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 94¢ | $31 |
| 3h ago | 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025Mid | Buy | Down | 5.0¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 95¢ | $29 |
| 3h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 95¢ | $20 |
| 3h ago | G-Penis-MonsterMid | Buy | Down | 6.0¢ | $2 |
| 3h ago | pspspsps5Mid | Buy | Down | 10¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | soswald1Mid | Sell | Up | 86¢ | $9 |
| 3h ago | ohioismTop | Buy | Down | 18¢ | $3 |
| 3h ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Down | 17¢ | $3 |
| 3h ago | 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025Mid | Buy | Down | 19¢ | $7 |
| 3h ago | ohioismTop | Buy | Down | 18¢ | $0 |
| 3h ago | ohioismTop | Buy | Down | 18¢ | $0 |
| 3h ago | ohioismTop | Buy | Down | 18¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | ohioismTop | Buy | Down | 18¢ | $0 |
| 3h ago | soswald1Mid | Sell | Up | 91¢ | $9 |
| 3h ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Down | 9.0¢ | $0 |
| 3h ago | soswald1Mid | Sell | Up | 89¢ | $9 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 90¢ | $5 |
| 3h ago | soswald1Mid | Sell | Up | 91¢ | $9 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 89¢ | $4 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 90¢ | $32 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 91¢ | $5 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 91¢ | $32 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 15¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 15¢ | $5 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 88¢ | $4 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 85¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 85¢ | $4 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 84¢ | $4 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 83¢ | $4 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 84¢ | $29 |