Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET
ActiveLiquidity $10.3K·Volume $8·Ends Nov 15, 2026
Price now:Up100%Down0%
Smart money leans
Up
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
4
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$22.9K
72h +$22.9K
Smart money entered100¢100¢at 05:50(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy3h agoResolvesended(Nov 15, 2026)Liquidity$10.3K
Explanation
4 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Up", with $0 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 100¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$22.9K, +$22.9K over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 05:50
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $1,809 |
| 3h ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $1,809 |
| 3h ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $0 |
| 3h ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $0 |
| 3h ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $0 |
| 3h ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $0 |
| 3h ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $5 |
| 3h ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $0 |
| 3h ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $5 |
| 3h ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $0 |
| 3h ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $5 |
| 3h ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $5 |
| 3h ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $175 |
| 3h ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $175 |
| 3h ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $4 |
| 3h ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $4 |
| 3h ago | 0x00b1…62beMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $40 |
| 3h ago | pspspsps5Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $130 |
| 3h ago | pspspsps5Mid | Buy | Up | 97¢ | $43 |
| 3h ago | 0x00b1…62beMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $40 |
| 3h ago | pspspsps5Mid | Buy | Up | 98¢ | $65 |
| 3h ago | 0xef41…bc91Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $200 |
| 3h ago | 0xef41…bc91Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $200 |
| 3h ago | 0xd749…9b2cMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $99 |
| 3h ago | 0xd749…9b2cMid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Up | 98¢ | $63 |
| 3h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Up | 98¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | 0xd749…9b2cMid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 3h ago | 0xd749…9b2cMid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 3h ago | 0xd749…9b2cMid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Up | 98¢ | $49 |
| 3h ago | 0xd749…9b2cMid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | 0xd749…9b2cMid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $574 |
| 3h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 3h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $574 |
| 3h ago | 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710Mid | Buy | Up | 98¢ | $20 |
| 3h ago | 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710Mid | Buy | Up | 98¢ | $20 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 3.0¢ | $0 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 4.0¢ | $0 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 4.0¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 4.0¢ | $0 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 3.0¢ | $0 |
| 3h ago | G-Penis-MonsterMid | Buy | Down | 3.0¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | G-Penis-MonsterMid | Buy | Down | 3.0¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 3.0¢ | $0 |
| 3h ago | ply-pm4Mid | Sell | Down | 2.0¢ | $0 |
| 3h ago | ply-pm4Mid | Sell | Down | 2.0¢ | $0 |
| 3h ago | 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710Mid | Buy | Up | 97¢ | $582 |