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Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $12.5K·Volume $2·Ends Nov 15, 2026
Price now:Up0%Down100%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 05:50computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Down
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
5
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$1,043
72h +$1,043
Smart money entered75¢100¢at 05:50(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy3h agoResolvesended(Nov 15, 2026)Liquidity$12.5K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

5 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Down", with $0 riding on it.

The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 75¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$1,043, +$1,043 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 05:50
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
3h ago0x3884…416dMidBuyDown100¢$5
4h ago0x3884…416dMidBuyDown99¢$13
4h ago0x3884…416dMidBuyDown99¢$403
4h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$316
4h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$297
4h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$57
4h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$7
4h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$16
4h ago0xeba7…2d1fMidBuyDown99¢$3
4h ago0xeba7…2d1fMidBuyDown99¢$7
4h ago0xd749…9b2cMidBuyDown99¢$26
4h ago0xeba7…2d1fMidBuyDown99¢$172
4h ago0xd749…9b2cMidBuyDown99¢$50
4h ago0xd749…9b2cMidBuyDown99¢$14
4h ago0xd749…9b2cMidBuyDown99¢$9
4h ago0x8e77…25f8MidBuyDown99¢$20
4h agoG-Penis-MonsterMidBuyDown95¢$19
4h agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown94¢$53
4h agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown94¢$118
4h agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown94¢$65
4h agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown86¢$3
4h agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown82¢$103
4h agososwald1MidSellUp13¢$1
4h agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown84¢$105
4h agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown82¢$103
4h agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp27¢$7
4h agoohioismTopBuyUp33¢$2
4h agoohioismTopBuyUp33¢$1
4h agoohioismTopBuyUp33¢$2
4h agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown65¢$16
4h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp30¢$12
4h agoohioismTopBuyUp30¢$3
4h agoply-pm4MidSellDown67¢$4
4h ago0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025MidBuyUp26¢$8
4h agoohioismTopBuyUp30¢$2
4h agoG-Penis-MonsterMidBuyUp24¢$2
4h ago0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025MidBuyUp24¢$10
4h agoohioismTopBuyUp26¢$0
4h agososwald1MidSellUp27¢$0
4h agoohioismTopBuyUp26¢$8
4h agososwald1MidSellUp27¢$1
4h ago0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025MidBuyDown70¢$4
4h ago0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025MidBuyDown70¢$2
4h ago0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025MidBuyUp34¢$7
4h agoohioismTopBuyDown65¢$10
4h agoG-Penis-MonsterMidBuyDown67¢$17
4h ago0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025MidBuyUp34¢$7
4h agoohioismTopBuyDown65¢$10
4h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp35¢$2
4h agoohioismTopBuyUp35¢$21