Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET
ActiveLiquidity $12.5K·Volume $2·Ends Nov 15, 2026
Price now:Up100%Down0%
Smart money leans
Up
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
5
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$8,131
72h +$8,131
Smart money entered97¢100¢at 05:50(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy4h agoResolvesended(Nov 15, 2026)Liquidity$12.5K
Explanation
5 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Up", with $0 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 97¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$8,131, +$8,131 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 05:50
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4h ago | 0xd749…9b2cMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $99 |
| 4h ago | 0x00b1…62beMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $40 |
| 4h ago | 0xd749…9b2cMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $99 |
| 4h ago | 0x00b1…62beMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $40 |
| 4h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 2.0¢ | $0 |
| 4h ago | 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $6 |
| 4h ago | 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $6 |
| 4h ago | pspspsps5Mid | Buy | Up | 98¢ | $1 |
| 4h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 98¢ | $5 |
| 4h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 3.0¢ | $0 |
| 4h ago | 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710Mid | Buy | Up | 98¢ | $559 |
| 4h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 98¢ | $5 |
| 4h ago | 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $594 |
| 4h ago | 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $594 |
| 4h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 4.0¢ | $0 |
| 4h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 4.0¢ | $0 |
| 4h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 97¢ | $5 |
| 4h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 97¢ | $5 |
| 4h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 6.0¢ | $1 |
| 4h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 5.0¢ | $0 |
| 4h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 6.0¢ | $0 |
| 4h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 6.0¢ | $0 |
| 4h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 5.0¢ | $0 |
| 4h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 6.0¢ | $0 |
| 4h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 6.0¢ | $1 |
| 4h ago | 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710Mid | Buy | Up | 95¢ | $29 |
| 4h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 7.0¢ | $2 |
| 4h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 7.0¢ | $0 |
| 4h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 7.0¢ | $0 |
| 4h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 6.0¢ | $0 |
| 4h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 12¢ | $4 |
| 4h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 10¢ | $1 |
| 4h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 12¢ | $1 |
| 4h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 24¢ | $1 |
| 4h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 24¢ | $8 |
| 4h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 23¢ | $2 |
| 4h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 23¢ | $1 |
| 4h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 23¢ | $1 |
| 4h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 23¢ | $6 |
| 4h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 20¢ | $1 |
| 4h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 22¢ | $1 |
| 4h ago | ohioismTop | Buy | Down | 19¢ | $5 |
| 4h ago | ohioismTop | Buy | Down | 19¢ | $5 |
| 4h ago | G-Penis-MonsterMid | Buy | Down | 20¢ | $2 |
| 4h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 20¢ | $1 |
| 4h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 22¢ | $1 |
| 4h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 19¢ | $1 |
| 4h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 22¢ | $1 |
| 4h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 22¢ | $1 |
| 4h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 21¢ | $1 |