Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET
ActiveLiquidity $17.0K·Volume $2·Ends Nov 15, 2026
Price now:Up0%Down100%
Smart money leans
Down
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
7
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$3,153
72h +$3,153
Smart money entered91¢100¢at 05:50(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy5h agoResolvesended(Nov 15, 2026)Liquidity$17.0K
Explanation
7 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Down", with $0 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 91¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$3,153, +$3,153 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 05:50
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5h ago | 0x9587…c10aTop | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $581 |
| 5h ago | 0x9587…c10aTop | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $581 |
| 5h ago | 0x3884…416dMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $990 |
| 5h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $495 |
| 5h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 5h ago | 0x00b1…62beMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $40 |
| 5h ago | 0x9566…6f25Mid | Buy | Down | 98¢ | $13 |
| 5h ago | 0xd749…9b2cMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $99 |
| 5h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 1.0¢ | $1 |
| 5h ago | G-Penis-MonsterMid | Buy | Up | 2.0¢ | $0 |
| 5h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 2.0¢ | $1 |
| 5h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 2.0¢ | $0 |
| 5h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 2.0¢ | $0 |
| 5h ago | 0xef41…bc91Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $200 |
| 5h ago | G-Penis-MonsterMid | Buy | Up | 8.0¢ | $8 |
| 5h ago | ohioismTop | Buy | Down | 90¢ | $12 |
| 5h ago | ohioismTop | Buy | Down | 90¢ | $9 |
| 5h ago | ohioismTop | Buy | Down | 90¢ | $11 |
| 5h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 89¢ | $94 |
| 5h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 89¢ | $17 |
| 5h ago | 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025Mid | Buy | Up | 4.0¢ | $0 |
| 5h ago | 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025Mid | Buy | Up | 4.0¢ | $0 |
| 5h ago | 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025Mid | Buy | Up | 4.0¢ | $1 |
| 5h ago | ohioismTop | Buy | Up | 3.0¢ | $0 |
| 5h ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Up | 3.0¢ | $1 |
| 5h ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Up | 4.0¢ | $1 |
| 5h ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Up | 4.0¢ | $0 |
| 5h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 2.0¢ | $3 |
| 5h ago | pspspsps5Mid | Buy | Up | 12¢ | $0 |
| 5h ago | pspspsps5Mid | Buy | Up | 12¢ | $1 |
| 5h ago | pspspsps5Mid | Buy | Up | 11¢ | $1 |
| 5h ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Down | 86¢ | $22 |
| 5h ago | pspspsps5Mid | Buy | Up | 11¢ | $0 |
| 5h ago | pspspsps5Mid | Buy | Up | 12¢ | $0 |
| 5h ago | pspspsps5Mid | Buy | Up | 12¢ | $0 |
| 5h ago | G-Penis-MonsterMid | Buy | Up | 15¢ | $3 |
| 5h ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Up | 20¢ | $1 |
| 5h ago | G-Penis-MonsterMid | Buy | Up | 19¢ | $2 |
| 5h ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Up | 19¢ | $5 |
| 5h ago | PBot-5Mid | Buy | Up | 19¢ | $0 |
| 5h ago | PBot-5Mid | Buy | Up | 19¢ | $2 |
| 5h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 20¢ | $4 |
| 5h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 20¢ | $1 |
| 5h ago | G-Penis-MonsterMid | Buy | Up | 16¢ | $2 |
| 5h ago | G-Penis-MonsterMid | Buy | Up | 16¢ | $1 |
| 5h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 36¢ | $9 |
| 5h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 37¢ | $2 |
| 5h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 37¢ | $7 |
| 5h ago | G-Penis-MonsterMid | Buy | Down | 63¢ | $2 |
| 5h ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Up | 34¢ | $7 |